Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,625 · September 28, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 120 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The Perene Index closed at 49.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state49/100Today ▾ -10
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite20/100Today ▾ -13
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move46/100Today ▾ -6
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 20) and recent move (46) diverge.

The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day141,125 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months180,464 pts (+28%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2021
    Ibovespa 103,922 → 98,295 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 78 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +6.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Similar cases — what came next

calibrating

Observed distribution, not a forecast · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. June 30, 2013Perene 49 · risk-on
  2. April 30, 2017Perene 49 · risk-on
  3. April 30, 2016Perene 49 · defensive
  4. May 31, 2014Perene 48 · neutral
  5. May 31, 2001Perene 48
  6. January 31, 2016Perene 50 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • ciclicas-defensivas: calibrating
  • Ibovespa: 182,991 pts, +25% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,625 · Regime defensive · for 120 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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