Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition of August 31, 2025 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index recovered ground and closed at 41. The environment stays anchored to neutral ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state45/100Today ▾ -52
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite72/100Today ▲ +17
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJuly 31, 2024
    Ibovespa that day127,652 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months126,135 pts (-1%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2024 →
  2. ○Five years agoAugust 2020
    Ibovespa 99,369 → 112,776 pts (+14% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 59 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 64% · median +1.6%
  • 6M: higher 79% · median +7.2%
  • 12M: higher 75% · median +12.7%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2023-01, 2023-08, 2024-09 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2010Perene 45 · broad risk-on
  2. August 31, 2001Perene 45
  3. September 30, 2018Perene 45 · neutral
  4. August 31, 2016Perene 45 · neutral
  5. August 31, 2010Perene 45 · risk-on
  6. May 31, 2020Perene 44 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +7.2% over six months, with 79% positive episodes (n=14).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 141,422 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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