Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,624 · September 25, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 117 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The session put the Perene Index back at 59. Appetite stays depressed.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state59/100Today ▲ +4
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite33/100Today ▾ -11
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move52/100Today ▾ -5
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day149,540 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,909 pts (+22%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2021
    Ibovespa 118,894 → 103,501 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 80 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 68% of the time — median +6.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 60% · median +8.3%
  • 6M: higher 80% · median +7.3%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +28%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2024-11, 2022-07, 2025-03 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2015Perene 59 · defensive
  2. November 30, 2020Perene 58 · risk-on
  3. June 30, 2015Perene 58 · defensive
  4. February 29, 2024Perene 58 · neutral
  5. August 31, 2000Perene 60
  6. December 31, 2003Perene 60
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +7.3% over six months, with 80% positive episodes (n=5).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • ciclicas-defensivas: calibrating
  • Ibovespa: 183,477 pts, +26.4% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,624 · Regime defensive · for 117 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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