Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,641 · October 21, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 143 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The Perene Index recovered ground and closed at 90. The market's disposition stays neutral.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state90/100Today ▾ -3
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite54/100Today ▾ -8
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move47/100Today ▾ -8
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (90) while the month regime still reads defensive.

The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoMay 31, 2021
    Ibovespa that day126,216 pts
    what happened in 6 months100,775 pts (-20%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2021 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 57 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +3.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Similar cases — what came next

calibrating

Observed distribution, not a forecast · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2023Perene 90 · neutral
  2. December 31, 2014Perene 90 · neutral
  3. June 30, 2023Perene 89 · defensive
  4. April 30, 2025Perene 91 · defensive
  5. July 31, 2016Perene 91 · neutral
  6. May 31, 2022Perene 89 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • ciclicas-defensivas: calibrating
  • Ibovespa: 206,495 pts, +44.8% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,641 · Regime defensive · for 143 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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