Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,650 · November 4, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 157 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The market's mood worsened. The day closes with the Perene Index at 10.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state10/100Today ▲ +10
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite10/100Today ▲ +4
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move14/100Today ▲ +1
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJuly 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day133,071 pts
    the archive suggested+4% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,364 pts (+36%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2021
    Ibovespa 101,915 → 112,393 pts (+10% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 61 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +4.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Similar cases — what came next

calibrating

Observed distribution, not a forecast · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2009Perene 10
  2. March 31, 2020Perene 11 · risk-on
  3. November 30, 2017Perene 11 · risk-on
  4. November 30, 2021Perene 9 · defensive
  5. October 31, 2019Perene 11 · risk-on
  6. May 31, 2006Perene 11
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • ciclicas-defensivas: calibrating
  • Ibovespa: 167,563 pts, +13.7% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,650 · Regime defensive · for 157 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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