Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,656 · November 12, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 165 days · 2 min read

◦ Index methodology v2.2. See the methodology.

The session put the Perene Index back at 17. The environment stays anchored to defensive ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state17/100Today ▾ -12
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite7/100Today → 0
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move36/100Today ▲ +6
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 7) and recent move (36) diverge.

Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJuly 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day133,071 pts
    the archive suggested+4% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,364 pts (+36%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2021
    Ibovespa 101,915 → 112,393 pts (+10% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 65 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +4.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Similar cases — what came next

calibrating

Observed distribution, not a forecast · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. July 31, 2025Perene 18 · defensive
  2. April 30, 2005Perene 18
  3. October 31, 2024Perene 16 · defensive
  4. January 31, 2015Perene 16 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2007Perene 15
  6. May 31, 2012Perene 19 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • ciclicas-defensivas: calibrating
  • Ibovespa: 171,324 pts, +11.8% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,656 · Regime defensive · for 165 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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