Brazil market regime — 2022-11-30

In 5 independent past episodes with a similar reading (Ânima/Perene Risk/Regime), the IBOV was higher 100% of the time after 6 months (median +4.2%, central range 3.3% to 5.5%). Observed distribution, not a forecast.

• 3M: higher 80% · median +6.8% · central range +6.8%…+9.9% (n=5)
• 6M: higher 100% · median +4.2% · central range +3.3%…+5.5% (n=5)
• 12M: higher 100% · median +42.7% · central range +30%…+55.4% (n=2)

5 independent episodes · e.g. 2021-12, 2016-11, 2022-03, 2016-02, 2022-05 · 3-índices (Ânima/Risco/Regime), z-dist<=1,0, episódios