Brazil market regime
Edition no. 283 · February 18, 2014 · reconstructed essentials
The market returned to an extreme, now extreme risk-off. The index reads 0 — extreme risk-off.
Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.
- ●A year agoMay 31, 2013Ibovespa that day53,506 ptsthe archive suggested+0% in 6m hist. medianwhat happened in 6 months51,847 pts (-3%)Reread the edition of May 31, 2013 →
- ○Five years agoSeptember 2009Ibovespa 61,518 → 71,417 pts (+16% in 6m) · reread →
- ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →
In 32 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 53% of the time — median +0.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →
Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.
Observed distribution, not a forecast.
- Ibovespa: 46,600 pts
The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.
Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →
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