Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 255 · November 30, 2014 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index recovered ground and closed at 91. The reading stays at the top of the scale.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state92/100Today ▾ -8
how to read?

The Perene Risk Index is stretched (92) while the month regime still reads defensive.

Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoNovember 30, 2013
    Ibovespa that day51,245 pts
    the archive suggested-11% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months54,273 pts (+6%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2013 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2009
    Ibovespa 54,766 → 62,763 pts (+15% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 30 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 57% of the time — median +3.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2019Perene 92 · risk-on
  2. August 31, 2003Perene 93
  3. October 31, 2018Perene 93 · neutral
  4. July 31, 2016Perene 91 · neutral
  5. October 31, 2014Perene 93 · defensive
  6. April 30, 2025Perene 91 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-on.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 54,664 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 255 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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