Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,743 · February 18, 2015 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session shifted the risk reading. The index reads 87 — the top of the scale.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state87/100Today ▲ +71
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoNovember 30, 2013
    Ibovespa that day51,245 pts
    the archive suggested-11% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months54,273 pts (+6%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2013 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2010
    Ibovespa 68,517 → 66,765 pts (-3% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 31 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +5.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2022Perene 87 · defensive
  2. November 30, 2006Perene 87
  3. July 31, 2009Perene 88
  4. February 29, 2008Perene 87
  5. April 30, 2011Perene 86 · risk-on
  6. October 31, 2010Perene 88 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 51,280 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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