Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 3,981 · February 5, 2016 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index recovered ground and closed at 97. The environment stays anchored to an appetite extreme.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state97/100Today ▲ +47
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite50/100
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2014
    Ibovespa that day48,512 pts
    the archive suggested-8% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months52,344 pts (+8%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2014 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2011
    Ibovespa 64,620 → 56,875 pts (-12% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 37 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 57% of the time — median +3.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. February 29, 2012Perene 97 · risk-on
  2. December 31, 2020Perene 96 · risk-on
  3. January 31, 2001Perene 98
  4. May 31, 2011Perene 99 · risk-on
  5. March 31, 2003Perene 95
  6. November 30, 2002Perene 95
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 40,592 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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