Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 3,995 · February 29, 2016 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day brought movement where continuity had prevailed. The session ended with the Perene at 68. At the ends of the index, utilities led.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state63/100Today ▾ -37
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite52/100Today ▾ -4
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoFebruary 28, 2015
    Ibovespa that day51,021 pts
    the archive suggested-6% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months45,477 pts (-11%)
    Reread the edition of February 28, 2015 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2010
    Ibovespa 69,962 → 62,565 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveApril 2000
    Ibovespa 15,524 → 14,891 pts (-4% in 6m) · reread →

In 36 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2023Perene 63 · defensive
  2. June 30, 2014Perene 63 · defensive
  3. March 31, 2024Perene 63 · neutral
  4. January 31, 2009Perene 64
  5. July 31, 2013Perene 62 · risk-on
  6. September 30, 2010Perene 62 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket strong risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 42,794 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 3,995 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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