Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 4,515 · April 3, 2018 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now extreme risk-off. The Perene Index marked 3 at the close.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state3/100Today ▲ +3
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite29/100Today ▾ -18
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMay 31, 2017
    Ibovespa that day62,711 pts
    the archive suggested+12% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months72,264 pts (+15%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2017 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2013
    Ibovespa 53,506 → 51,847 pts (-3% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 43 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 51% of the time — median +0.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2011Perene 3 · risk-on
  2. February 28, 2007Perene 3
  3. October 31, 2016Perene 2 · neutral
  4. March 31, 2005Perene 5
  5. April 30, 2004Perene 1
  6. February 28, 2018Perene 5 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 84,623 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

← previous edition · 2018-04-02all editions · Atlas2018-04-04 · next edition →