Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 4,524 · April 16, 2018 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day brought no relief to the mood, which stayed depressed. The session ended with the Perene at 3.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state3/100Today ▲ +3
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite19/100Today ▾ -3
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMay 31, 2017
    Ibovespa that day62,711 pts
    the archive suggested+12% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months72,264 pts (+15%)
    Reread the edition of May 31, 2017 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2013
    Ibovespa 53,506 → 51,847 pts (-3% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 42 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 50% of the time — median -0.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2011Perene 3 · risk-on
  2. February 28, 2007Perene 3
  3. October 31, 2016Perene 2 · neutral
  4. March 31, 2005Perene 5
  5. April 30, 2004Perene 1
  6. February 28, 2018Perene 5 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 82,862 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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