Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a neutral regime.

Edition of March 31, 2019 · Regime neutro · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day brought movement where continuity had prevailed. The Perene Index marked 28 at the close. In the intermarket, utilities led.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state26/100Today ▲ +26
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite42/100Today ▲ +6
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMarch 31, 2018
    Ibovespa that day84,666 pts
    the archive suggested+30% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months78,624 pts (-7%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2018 →
  2. ○Five years agoFebruary 2014
    Ibovespa 47,094 → 60,800 pts (+29% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 52 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 75% of the time — median +7.2% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 83% · median +7.9%
  • 6M: higher 67% · median +13.5%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +20.2%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2018-04, 2017-05, 2017-08 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2022Perene 26 · defensive
  2. January 31, 2013Perene 27 · risk-on
  3. September 30, 2024Perene 27 · defensive
  4. September 30, 2003Perene 25
  5. June 30, 2005Perene 28
  6. June 30, 2003Perene 28
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket neutral.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +13.5% over six months, with 67% positive episodes (n=6).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 95,415 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime neutro · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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