Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 4,945 · December 27, 2019 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The backdrop changed tone, and the mood gave ground again. The market ended with a Perene Index of 87.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state87/100Today ▾ -13
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite57/100Today ▾ -5
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJanuary 31, 2019
    Ibovespa that day97,394 pts
    the archive suggested+13% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months100,098 pts (+3%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2019 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2014
    Ibovespa 48,512 → 52,344 pts (+8% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 41 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 66% of the time — median +5.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2022Perene 87 · defensive
  2. November 30, 2006Perene 87
  3. July 31, 2009Perene 88
  4. February 29, 2008Perene 87
  5. April 30, 2011Perene 86 · risk-on
  6. October 31, 2010Perene 88 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 116,534 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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