Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 4,998 · March 17, 2020 · reconstructed essentials

The Perene Index closed at 2. Appetite stays depressed.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state2/100Today ▲ +2
Ânima · structuralinvestors’ prevailing mood1/100Today → 0
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoAugust 31, 2015
    Ibovespa that day46,626 pts
    the archive suggested-7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months48,665 pts (+4%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2015 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 48 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 56% of the time — median +3.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2016Perene 2 · neutral
  2. January 31, 2011Perene 3 · risk-on
  3. February 28, 2007Perene 3
  4. April 30, 2004Perene 1
  5. September 30, 2002Perene 0
  6. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 74,617 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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