Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,068 · June 29, 2020 · reconstructed essentials

A lighter day on the reading. Today, the Perene Index closed at 98.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state98/100Today ▲ +53
Ânima · structuralinvestors’ prevailing mood37/100Today ▲ +4
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJanuary 31, 2019
    Ibovespa that day97,394 pts
    the archive suggested+13% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months100,098 pts (+3%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2019 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2014
    Ibovespa 48,512 → 52,344 pts (+8% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 49 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2001Perene 98
  2. May 31, 2011Perene 99 · risk-on
  3. May 31, 2009Perene 99
  4. February 29, 2012Perene 97 · risk-on
  5. December 31, 2000Perene 100
  6. June 30, 2020Perene 100 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 95,735 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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