Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,082 · July 17, 2020 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk picture shifted over the session. The day closes with the Perene Index at 97.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state97/100Today ▾ -1
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite38/100Today ▲ +12
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2019
    Ibovespa that day101,340 pts
    the archive suggested+10% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months118,573 pts (+17%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2019 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2014
    Ibovespa 48,512 → 52,344 pts (+8% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveDecember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,425 → 14,048 pts (-9% in 6m) · reread →

In 47 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. February 29, 2012Perene 97 · risk-on
  2. December 31, 2020Perene 96 · risk-on
  3. January 31, 2001Perene 98
  4. May 31, 2011Perene 99 · risk-on
  5. March 31, 2003Perene 95
  6. November 30, 2002Perene 95
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 102,888 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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