Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,204 · January 15, 2021 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

No change altered the reading of the regime.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state70/100Today ▾ -27
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite68/100Today ▲ +4
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2019
    Ibovespa that day118,573 pts
    the archive suggested+10% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months98,937 pts (-17%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2019 →
  2. ○Five years agoFebruary 2016
    Ibovespa 42,794 → 57,716 pts (+35% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJune 2000
    Ibovespa 16,728 → 16,599 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 53 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 57% of the time — median +5.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2004Perene 70
  2. July 31, 2004Perene 70
  3. October 31, 2006Perene 70
  4. March 31, 2006Perene 71
  5. August 31, 2011Perene 69 · risk-on
  6. January 31, 2025Perene 69 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 120,502 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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