Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,225 · February 18, 2021 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Risk Index fell to 69.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state69/100Today ▾ -14
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite45/100Today ▾ -4
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2019
    Ibovespa that day118,573 pts
    the archive suggested+10% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months98,937 pts (-17%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2019 →
  2. ○Five years agoFebruary 2016
    Ibovespa 42,794 → 57,716 pts (+35% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJune 2000
    Ibovespa 16,728 → 16,599 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 55 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +7.1% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2025Perene 69 · defensive
  2. June 30, 2010Perene 69 · risk-on
  3. August 31, 2011Perene 69 · risk-on
  4. February 28, 2009Perene 69
  5. June 30, 2004Perene 69
  6. October 31, 2025Perene 69 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 119,140 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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