Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,243 · March 16, 2021 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day brought no relief to the mood, which stayed neutral. The Perene Index rose to 78.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state78/100Today ▾ -10
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite39/100Today ▾ -2
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2019
    Ibovespa that day118,573 pts
    the archive suggested+10% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months98,937 pts (-17%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2019 →
  2. ○Five years agoOctober 2015
    Ibovespa 48,054 → 52,764 pts (+10% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 45 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +5.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2005Perene 78
  2. April 30, 2012Perene 79 · risk-on
  3. December 31, 2012Perene 79 · risk-on
  4. June 30, 2000Perene 79
  5. January 31, 2022Perene 79 · defensive
  6. May 31, 2025Perene 77 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 114,019 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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