Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a risk-on regime.

Edition no. 5,359 · August 31, 2021 · Regime risk_on · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The index reads 21 — risk-off.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state22/100Today ▲ +21
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite44/100Today ▾ -23
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2020
    Ibovespa that day80,506 pts
    the archive suggested+17% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months96,582 pts (+20%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2020 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2016
    Ibovespa 61,906 → 62,450 pts (+1% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2001
    Ibovespa 10,501 → 13,416 pts (+28% in 6m) · reread →

In 56 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 55% of the time — median +2.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 75% · median +7.4%
  • 6M: higher 67% · median +14%
  • 12M: higher 90% · median +12.1%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2020-09, 2019-11, 2018-02 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2024Perene 23 · defensive
  2. September 30, 2001Perene 23
  3. December 31, 2007Perene 23
  4. September 30, 2019Perene 21 · risk-on
  5. November 30, 2012Perene 21 · risk-on
  6. July 31, 2014Perene 24 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +14% over six months, with 67% positive episodes (n=12).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 118,781 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 5,359 · Regime risk_on · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every risk-on stretch in the Observatory →

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