Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition of November 30, 2024 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index marked 23 at the close.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state23/100Today ▲ +23
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite14/100Today ▾ -12
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2023
    Ibovespa that day115,057 pts
    the archive suggested+2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months128,857 pts (+12%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoSeptember 2019
    Ibovespa 104,745 → 69,538 pts (-34% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2001
    Ibovespa 13,981 → 10,233 pts (-27% in 6m) · reread →

In 63 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 56% of the time — median +3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 80% · median +13.1%
  • 6M: higher 80% · median +12.9%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +23.9%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2022-07, 2023-03, 2022-12 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. December 31, 2007Perene 23
  2. September 30, 2001Perene 23
  3. July 31, 2014Perene 24 · defensive
  4. November 30, 2009Perene 24
  5. January 31, 2014Perene 24 · neutral
  6. August 31, 2021Perene 22 · risk-on
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +12.9% over six months, with 80% positive episodes (n=5).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 125,668 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2024-11-28all editions · Observatory2024-12-02 · next edition →