Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,383 · October 5, 2021 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market pulled back to a defensive extreme. The Perene Index stopped at 6.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state6/100Today ▾ -7
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite39/100Today ▲ +30
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoOctober 31, 2020
    Ibovespa that day95,587 pts
    the archive suggested+10% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months119,710 pts (+25%)
    Reread the edition of October 31, 2020 →
  2. ○Five years agoOctober 2016
    Ibovespa 64,925 → 65,526 pts (+1% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 51 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 53% of the time — median +0.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2020Perene 6 · risk-on
  2. April 30, 2010Perene 6 · broad risk-on
  3. February 28, 2018Perene 5 · risk-on
  4. April 30, 2024Perene 7 · neutral
  5. March 31, 2005Perene 5
  6. November 30, 2000Perene 7
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 110,458 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · See every extreme like this one in the Atlas →

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