Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,528 · May 9, 2022 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market pulled back to a defensive extreme. The Perene Index stopped at 2.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state2/100Today ▾ -36
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite50/100Today ▾ -2
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJuly 31, 2021
    Ibovespa that day122,516 pts
    the archive suggested+15% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months112,161 pts (-8%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2021 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2017
    Ibovespa 62,711 → 72,264 pts (+15% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 50 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 50% of the time — median -0.3% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. October 31, 2016Perene 2 · neutral
  2. January 31, 2011Perene 3 · risk-on
  3. February 28, 2007Perene 3
  4. April 30, 2004Perene 1
  5. September 30, 2002Perene 0
  6. May 31, 2024Perene 0 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 103,250 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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