Brazil market regime

Edition no. 5,683 · December 19, 2022 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk picture shifted over the session. The Perene Index marked 14 at the close.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state14/100Today ▲ +14

Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite24/100Today ▾ -4

how to read?

History favored gains — without unanimity.

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoNovember 30, 2021
Ibovespa that day101,915 pts
the archive suggested+24% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months112,393 pts (+10%)
Reread the edition of November 30, 2021 →
○Five years agoNovember 2017
Ibovespa 71,971 → 76,117 pts (+6% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 55 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +4.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 104,530 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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