Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 750 · December 31, 2022 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index recovered ground and closed at 39.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state37/100Today ▲ +37
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite30/100Today ▲ +2
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2021
    Ibovespa that day103,922 pts
    the archive suggested+22% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months98,295 pts (-5%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2021 →
  2. ○Five years agoMarch 2018
    Ibovespa 84,666 → 78,624 pts (-7% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 63 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 68% of the time — median +7.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 80% · median +8.7%
  • 6M: higher 80% · median +3.3%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +32.3%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2021-12, 2016-12, 2022-05 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2021Perene 38 · risk-on
  2. September 30, 2025Perene 38 · defensive
  3. April 30, 2019Perene 38 · neutral
  4. April 30, 2013Perene 38 · risk-on
  5. August 31, 2008Perene 36
  6. June 30, 2024Perene 38 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket strong risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +3.3% over six months, with 80% positive episodes (n=5).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 110,031 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 750 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

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