Brazil market regime — 2022-12-31

In 5 independent past episodes with a similar reading (Ânima/Perene Risk/Regime), the IBOV was higher 80% of the time after 6 months (median +1.7%, central range 0.9% to 5.8%). Observed distribution, not a forecast.

• 3M: higher 80% · median +7.5% · central range +5.9%…+8.7% (n=5)
• 6M: higher 80% · median +1.7% · central range +0.9%…+5.8% (n=5)
• 12M: higher 67% · median +32.3% · central range +14.3%…+50.2% (n=3)

5 independent episodes · e.g. 2021-12, 2016-12, 2022-06, 2016-02, 2022-03 · 3-índices (Ânima/Risco/Regime), z-dist<=1,0, episódios