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Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,142 · October 17, 2024 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The picture reached the day's end intact. The day closes at 32, a neutral read.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state32/100Today ▲ +8
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite42/100Today ▾ -2
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoApril 30, 2019
    Ibovespa that day96,353 pts
    the archive suggested+14% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months108,187 pts (+12%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2019 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 68 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 59% of the time — median +2% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2018Perene 32 · risk-on
  2. February 28, 2014Perene 32 · neutral
  3. February 29, 2004Perene 33
  4. June 30, 2021Perene 31 · risk-on
  5. July 31, 2002Perene 33
  6. March 31, 2001Perene 33
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 130,793 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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