Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,173 · December 3, 2024 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session put the Perene Index back at 27. Appetite stays depressed.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state27/100Today ▲ +16
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite34/100Today ▲ +8
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoSeptember 30, 2023
    Ibovespa that day115,057 pts
    the archive suggested+2% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months128,857 pts (+12%)
    Reread the edition of September 30, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoSeptember 2019
    Ibovespa 104,745 → 69,538 pts (-34% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 62 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 60% of the time — median +2.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2024Perene 27 · defensive
  2. January 31, 2013Perene 27 · risk-on
  3. June 30, 2005Perene 28
  4. June 30, 2003Perene 28
  5. February 28, 2021Perene 28 · risk-on
  6. February 28, 2023Perene 28 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 126,139 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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