Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,211 · January 30, 2025 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now risk-on. The day closes with the Perene Index at 72.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state72/100Today ▾ -8
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite60/100Today ▲ +15
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoNovember 30, 2023
    Ibovespa that day127,331 pts
    the archive suggested+6% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months121,407 pts (-5%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2019
    Ibovespa 118,573 → 98,937 pts (-17% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJune 2000
    Ibovespa 16,728 → 16,599 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 63 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 63% of the time — median +5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. February 28, 2017Perene 72 · neutral
  2. July 31, 2020Perene 72 · risk-on
  3. August 31, 2002Perene 72
  4. October 31, 2001Perene 73
  5. August 31, 2004Perene 71
  6. June 30, 2011Perene 73 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 126,913 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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