Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,235 · March 7, 2025 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index rose to the high end of the scale, now at 77. The phase stays pinned to constructive ground.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state77/100Today ▲ +46
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite44/100Today ▲ +3
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoNovember 30, 2023
    Ibovespa that day127,331 pts
    the archive suggested+6% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months121,407 pts (-5%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2023 →
  2. ○Five years agoDecember 2019
    Ibovespa 118,573 → 98,937 pts (-17% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 54 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. August 31, 2017Perene 77 · neutral
  2. May 31, 2025Perene 77 · defensive
  3. June 30, 2025Perene 76 · defensive
  4. December 31, 2005Perene 78
  5. May 31, 2008Perene 76
  6. April 30, 2012Perene 79 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 125,035 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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