Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,387 · October 13, 2025 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The backdrop changed tone, and the mood gave ground again. The Perene Index settled at 12 by day's end.

The Pulse

Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state12/100Today ▲ +12

Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite56/100Today ▲ +6

how to read?

The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

●A year agoOctober 31, 2024
Ibovespa that day129,713 pts
the archive suggested+8% in 6m hist. median
what happened in 6 months136,563 pts (+5%)
Reread the edition of October 31, 2024 →
○Five years agoSeptember 2020
Ibovespa 94,603 → 117,670 pts (+24% in 6m) · reread →
○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 63 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 59% of the time — median +3.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

Ibovespa: 141,783 pts

For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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