Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,415 · November 21, 2025 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The backdrop changed tone, and the mood gave ground again. The day's reading came in at 19.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state19/100Today ▾ -69
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite65/100Today ▲ +9
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoNovember 30, 2024
    Ibovespa that day125,236 pts
    the archive suggested+13% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months135,699 pts (+8%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2024 →
  2. ○Five years agoFebruary 2021
    Ibovespa 110,335 → 119,740 pts (+9% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2001
    Ibovespa 10,501 → 13,416 pts (+28% in 6m) · reread →

In 61 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +7.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2012Perene 19 · risk-on
  2. October 31, 2003Perene 19
  3. September 30, 2023Perene 20 · defensive
  4. April 30, 2005Perene 18
  5. July 31, 2025Perene 18 · defensive
  6. September 30, 2019Perene 21 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 154,770 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2025-11-05all editions · Observatory2025-11-30 · next edition →