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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 915 · December 31, 2025 · Regime defensivo · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The index reads 29 — risk-off.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state28/100Today ▲ +28
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite52/100Today ▲ +3
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoNovember 30, 2024
    Ibovespa that day125,236 pts
    the archive suggested+13% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months135,699 pts (+8%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2024 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2021
    Ibovespa 117,365 → 121,801 pts (+4% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 61 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 61% of the time — median +2.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 71% · median +7.7%
  • 6M: higher 86% · median +8.7%
  • 12M: higher 92% · median +17.1%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2022-03, 2023-02, 2024-09 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. February 28, 2023Perene 28 · defensive
  2. February 28, 2021Perene 28 · risk-on
  3. June 30, 2008Perene 28
  4. June 30, 2003Perene 28
  5. June 30, 2005Perene 28
  6. September 30, 2024Perene 27 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is neutral and the intermarket strong risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +8.7% over six months, with 86% positive episodes (n=14).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 161,125 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 915 · Regime defensivo · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

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