Brazil market regime — 2025-12-31

In 14 independent past episodes with a similar reading (Ânima/Perene Risk/Regime), the IBOV was higher 86% of the time after 6 months (median +8.7%, central range 1.8% to 13.5%). Observed distribution, not a forecast.

• 3M: higher 71% · median +7.7% · central range -0.6%…+10.7% (n=14)
• 6M: higher 86% · median +8.7% · central range +1.8%…+13.5% (n=14)
• 12M: higher 92% · median +17.1% · central range +9.4%…+28.8% (n=13)

14 independent episodes · e.g. 2022-03, 2023-02, 2024-09, 2021-11, 2018-10 · 3-índices (Ânima/Risco/Regime), z-dist<=1,0, episódios