Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,441 · January 2, 2026 · reconstructed essentials

The Perene Risk Index advanced to 13.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state13/100Today ▾ -15
Ânima · structuralinvestors’ prevailing mood53/100Today ▲ +1
how to read?
History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoDecember 31, 2024
    Ibovespa that day120,125 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months139,490 pts (+16%)
    Reread the edition of December 31, 2024 →
  2. ○Five years agoSeptember 2020
    Ibovespa 94,603 → 117,670 pts (+24% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 59 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 66% of the time — median +4.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2021Perene 13 · neutral
  2. September 30, 2014Perene 14 · neutral
  3. November 30, 2016Perene 14 · defensive
  4. February 28, 2011Perene 15 · risk-on
  5. February 28, 2010Perene 15
  6. May 31, 2018Perene 15 · neutral
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 160,539 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Atlas →

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