Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,446 · January 9, 2026 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The scene holds with no clear bias.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state52/100Today ▲ +17
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite66/100Today ▲ +3
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoNovember 30, 2020
    Ibovespa that day108,888 pts
    the archive suggested+6% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months129,787 pts (+19%)
    Reread the edition of November 30, 2020 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 77 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 69% of the time — median +7.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2015Perene 52 · defensive
  2. February 28, 2022Perene 52 · defensive
  3. March 31, 2000Perene 52
  4. June 30, 2001Perene 53
  5. February 28, 2019Perene 51 · risk-on
  6. April 30, 2018Perene 51 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 163,370 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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