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Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,447 · January 12, 2026 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to an extreme, now neutral territory. The day closes at 55, neutral territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state55/100Today ▲ +20
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite69/100Today ▲ +6
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2024
    Ibovespa that day134,981 pts
    the archive suggested+5% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months125,035 pts (-7%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2024 →
  2. ○Five years agoNovember 2020
    Ibovespa 108,888 → 129,787 pts (+19% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 75 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +5.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. September 30, 2013Perene 55 · risk-on
  2. March 31, 2015Perene 55 · defensive
  3. February 28, 2003Perene 55
  4. March 31, 2017Perene 54 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2019Perene 54 · risk-on
  6. July 31, 2006Perene 54
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 163,150 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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