Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,449 · January 14, 2026 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The session put the Perene Index back at 44. The backdrop remains upbeat.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state44/100Today ▲ +16
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite71/100Today ▲ +9
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoJanuary 31, 2021
    Ibovespa that day117,365 pts
    the archive suggested+14% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months121,801 pts (+4%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2021 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveFebruary 2000
    Ibovespa 17,660 → 17,414 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 73 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +6.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2023Perene 44 · defensive
  2. May 31, 2020Perene 44 · risk-on
  3. August 31, 2016Perene 45 · neutral
  4. August 31, 2010Perene 45 · risk-on
  5. August 31, 2025Perene 45 · defensive
  6. September 30, 2018Perene 45 · neutral
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 165,146 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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