Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,463 · February 3, 2026 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index closed at 85. Appetite stays neutral.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state85/100Today ▲ +31
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite61/100Today ▾ -11
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day135,067 pts
    the archive suggested+1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months146,969 pts (+9%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoMarch 2021
    Ibovespa 116,634 → 110,979 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 60 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +5.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. July 31, 2023Perene 85 · neutral
  2. May 31, 2000Perene 85
  3. March 31, 2009Perene 86
  4. October 31, 2013Perene 84 · risk-on
  5. November 30, 2011Perene 86 · risk-on
  6. December 31, 2008Perene 86
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 185,674 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Atlas →

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