Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,464 · February 4, 2026 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The Perene Index gave back ground and closed at 43. The picture stays with no clear bias.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state43/100Today ▾ -42
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite67/100Today ▲ +6
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoJanuary 31, 2021
    Ibovespa that day117,365 pts
    the archive suggested+14% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months121,801 pts (+4%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2021 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 76 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 70% of the time — median +7.8% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. February 28, 2013Perene 43 · risk-on
  2. January 31, 2020Perene 43 · risk-on
  3. January 31, 2023Perene 44 · defensive
  4. May 31, 2004Perene 42
  5. August 31, 2007Perene 42
  6. June 30, 2002Perene 42
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 181,708 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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