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Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,477 · February 25, 2026 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

Nothing moved the market from where it stood.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state47/100Today ▾ -25
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite67/100Today ▲ +12
how to read?
The market on the neutral plain.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●Five years agoJanuary 31, 2021
    Ibovespa that day117,365 pts
    the archive suggested+14% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months121,801 pts (+4%)
    Reread the edition of January 31, 2021 →
  2. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 74 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 65% of the time — median +6.4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. July 31, 2008Perene 47
  2. March 31, 2007Perene 47
  3. December 31, 2021Perene 47 · defensive
  4. August 31, 2012Perene 48 · risk-on
  5. November 30, 2019Perene 46 · risk-on
  6. August 31, 2019Perene 48 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 191,248 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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