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Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,504 · April 6, 2026 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The backdrop remains depressed.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state40/100Today ▾ -11
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite35/100Today ▾ -26
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoFebruary 28, 2025
    Ibovespa that day122,799 pts
    the archive suggested+6% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months140,335 pts (+14%)
    Reread the edition of February 28, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2021
    Ibovespa 126,802 → 103,922 pts (-18% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 72 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 71% of the time — median +10.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2010Perene 40 · risk-on
  2. August 31, 2018Perene 40 · neutral
  3. May 31, 2005Perene 40
  4. January 31, 2005Perene 40
  5. October 31, 2012Perene 39 · risk-on
  6. December 31, 2016Perene 39 · defensive
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 188,162 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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