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Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,509 · April 13, 2026 · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The market returned to constructive ground. The day's reading came in at 79.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state80/100Today ▾ -1
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite55/100Today ▲ +5
how to read?
Risk above the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoMarch 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day130,260 pts
    the archive suggested-1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months146,337 pts (+12%)
    Reread the edition of March 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJuly 2020
    Ibovespa 102,912 → 119,925 pts (+17% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 55 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 62% of the time — median +5.9% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. April 30, 2009Perene 80
  2. July 31, 2015Perene 79 · defensive
  3. October 31, 2011Perene 79 · risk-on
  4. December 31, 2019Perene 79 · risk-on
  5. January 31, 2022Perene 79 · defensive
  6. December 31, 2012Perene 79 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 198,001 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Observatory →

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