Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil market regime

Edition no. 6,528 · May 12, 2026 · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The continuity of recent days gave way to movement. The session ended with the Perene at 15.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state15/100Today ▾ -1
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite56/100Today ▾ -3
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJuly 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day133,071 pts
    the archive suggested+4% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months181,364 pts (+36%)
    Reread the edition of July 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoAugust 2021
    Ibovespa 118,781 → 111,593 pts (-6% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveSeptember 2000
    Ibovespa 15,559 → 14,719 pts (-5% in 6m) · reread →

In 69 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. January 31, 2010Perene 15
  2. December 31, 2024Perene 15 · defensive
  3. July 31, 2011Perene 15 · risk-on
  4. July 31, 2007Perene 15
  5. May 31, 2018Perene 15 · neutral
  6. February 28, 2011Perene 15 · risk-on
Today’s Read

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 180,342 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Browse the archive by phenomenon in the Atlas →

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