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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,543 · June 2, 2026 · Regime defensivo · for 2 days · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day brought movement where continuity had prevailed. The market ended with a Perene Index of 46.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state48/100Today ▲ +7
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite10/100Today ▾ -2
how to read?
Risk below the territory's midline.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day141,125 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months180,464 pts (+28%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoApril 2021
    Ibovespa 118,894 → 103,501 pts (-13% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMarch 2000
    Ibovespa 17,820 → 15,928 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 65 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +3.5% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 67% · median +10.4%
  • 6M: higher 50% · median +0.8%
  • 12M: higher 83% · median +12.6%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2022-07, 2023-03, 2024-07 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2008Perene 48
  2. May 31, 2014Perene 48 · neutral
  3. May 31, 2001Perene 48
  4. August 31, 2019Perene 48 · risk-on
  5. August 31, 2012Perene 48 · risk-on
  6. April 30, 2016Perene 49 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-on and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +0.8% over six months, with 50% positive episodes (n=6).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 174,198 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,543 · Regime defensivo · for 2 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

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