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Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,542 · June 1, 2026 · Regime defensivo · for 1 days · reconstructed essentials

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk reading moved to a different level. The index reads 38 — neutral territory.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state40/100Today ▾ -2
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite13/100Today → 0
how to read?
The other times split evenly.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoAugust 31, 2025
    Ibovespa that day141,125 pts
    the archive suggested+7% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months180,464 pts (+28%)
    Reread the edition of August 31, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJune 2021
    Ibovespa 126,802 → 103,922 pts (-18% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveJanuary 2000
    Ibovespa 16,388 → 16,290 pts (-1% in 6m) · reread →

In 67 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 58% of the time — median +4% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 63% · median +7.7%
  • 6M: higher 75% · median +5.3%
  • 12M: higher 100% · median +15.3%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2022-07, 2023-03, 2024-07 · how the analogs are built →

Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. November 30, 2010Perene 40 · risk-on
  2. August 31, 2018Perene 40 · neutral
  3. May 31, 2005Perene 40
  4. January 31, 2005Perene 40
  5. October 31, 2012Perene 39 · risk-on
  6. December 31, 2016Perene 39 · defensive
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-on and the intermarket moderate risk-off.

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +5.3% over six months, with 75% positive episodes (n=8).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 172,198 pts
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,542 · Regime defensivo · for 1 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Track record · From the archive: essays & precedents · Every defensive stretch in the Atlas →

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