Brazil market regime — 2026-06-01

In 8 independent past episodes with a similar reading (Ânima/Perene Risk/Regime), the IBOV was higher 75% of the time after 6 months (median +5.3%, central range 0.4% to 9.6%). Observed distribution, not a forecast.

• 3M: higher 63% · median +7.7% · central range -1.7%…+14.4% (n=8)
• 6M: higher 75% · median +5.3% · central range +0.4%…+9.6% (n=8)
• 12M: higher 100% · median +15.3% · central range +10.8%…+21.8% (n=8)

8 independent episodes · e.g. 2022-07, 2023-03, 2024-07, 2024-10, 2021-12 · 3-índices (Ânima/Risco/Regime), z-dist<=1,0, episódios