Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,560 · June 26, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 26 days · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The risk reading moved to a different level. Today, the Perene Index closed at 98.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state89/100Today ▲ +13
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite22/100Today ▲ +2
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move61/100Today ▲ +2
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 22) and recent move (61) diverge.

History favored gains — without unanimity.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day135,067 pts
    the archive suggested+1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months146,969 pts (+9%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2021
    Ibovespa 126,216 → 100,775 pts (-20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 61 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 66% of the time — median +4.7% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Analogous cases — what came next
  • 3M: higher 56% · median +1.6%
  • 6M: higher 52% · median +2.9%
  • 12M: higher 64% · median +1.5%

Observed distribution, not a forecast · e.g. 2014-12, 2014-11, 2014-03 · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2022Perene 89 · defensive
  2. June 30, 2023Perene 89 · defensive
  3. October 31, 2022Perene 88 · defensive
  4. December 31, 2023Perene 90 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2001Perene 88
  6. October 31, 2008Perene 88
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +2.9% over six months, with 52% positive episodes (n=25).

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, near its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 173,295 pts, +26.3% in 12 months
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,560 · Regime defensive · for 26 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2026-06-25all editions · Observatory2026-06-29 · next edition →