Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,559 · June 25, 2026 · Regime defensivo · for 25 days · reconstructed essentials · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The prevailing mood stays depressed. The day closes with the Perene Index at 89.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state76/100Today ▲ +8
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite20/100Today → 0
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move59/100Today ▲ +3
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 20) and recent move (59) diverge.

The other times split evenly.
Advertisement
The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoJune 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day138,855 pts
    the archive suggested+3% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months160,897 pts (+16%)
    Reread the edition of June 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoJanuary 2022
    Ibovespa 112,388 → 103,362 pts (-8% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 56 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 57% of the time — median +2.6% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. May 31, 2008Perene 76
  2. June 30, 2025Perene 76 · defensive
  3. August 31, 2017Perene 77 · neutral
  4. May 31, 2025Perene 77 · defensive
  5. February 28, 2006Perene 75
  6. February 28, 2005Perene 75
Today’s Read

The global backdrop is moderate risk-off and the intermarket strong risk-off.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Ibovespa: 171,990 pts
Advertisement
For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,559 · Regime defensivo · for 25 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · Every defensive stretch in the Observatory →

← previous edition · 2026-06-24all editions · Observatory2026-06-26 · next edition →