Radar PereneRadar Perene

Brazil's market is in a defensive regime.

Edition no. 6,561 · June 29, 2026 · Regime defensive · for 29 days · 2 min read

◦ Written under index methodology v1 (in effect until 15 Jul 2026). The current series is v2 — readings quoted here may differ from those shown today. See the methodology.

The day brought no relief to the mood, which stayed depressed. The session ended with the Perene at 94.

The Pulse
Perene Risk Indexthe market’s structural state94/100Today ▲ +5
Ânima · structuralthe market’s prevailing risk appetite24/100Today ▲ +1
Ânima · short-termthe market’s recent move64/100Today ▲ +3
how to read?

Structural mood (Ânima 24) and recent move (64) diverge.

History favored gains — without unanimity.
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The Archive Remembers ◎

Other times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s — what came next.

  1. ●A year agoApril 30, 2025
    Ibovespa that day135,067 pts
    the archive suggested+1% in 6m hist. median
    what happened in 6 months146,969 pts (+9%)
    Reread the edition of April 30, 2025 →
  2. ○Five years agoMay 2021
    Ibovespa 126,216 → 100,775 pts (-20% in 6m) · reread →
  3. ○First time in the archiveMay 2000
    Ibovespa 14,957 → 13,287 pts (-11% in 6m) · reread →

In 61 times the archive saw the market in a state like today’s since 2000, the Ibovespa was higher six months later 64% of the time — median +5.2% — not always upward. Explore the archive →

What Usually Comes Next
Similar cases — what came next

resembles 2014-12, 2014-11, 2014-03; median +2.9% with 52% up over 6m

Observed distribution, not a forecast · how the analogs are built →

Gravitational neighbors — days that behave like this one, from any era
Editions in a similar state

Other editions the archive read in a market state close to today’s — same neighbourhood of the Perene Risk Index.

  1. March 31, 2021Perene 94 · risk-on
  2. May 31, 2021Perene 94 · broad risk-on
  3. November 30, 2013Perene 94 · risk-on
  4. June 30, 2018Perene 94 · neutral
  5. July 31, 2010Perene 94 · risk-on
  6. May 31, 2003Perene 94
Today’s Read

Historically similar cases produced a median Ibovespa return of +2.9% over six months.

Observed distribution, not a forecast.

  • Cyclicals / defensives: defensives ahead, near its historical norm
  • Ibovespa: 173,205 pts, +27.6% in 12 months
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For the Next Edition

The next reading arrives on the next business day — the regime is monthly, and the daily pulse carries the change until month-end.

Edition no. 6,561 · Regime defensive · for 29 days · Radar Perene

Concepts: Brazil Regime · Intermarket BR · Historical Analogs · How to read: six steps · Methodology · Research & Laboratory ·Track record · See every extreme like this one in the Observatory →

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